Wednesday, 8 February 2012

Gold - preparing for fresh buying opportunities?

I have not properly contemplated making any investment decisions since gold was a lot closer to $1,600. On Friday 13th of January 2012 I was waiting for further falls on Monday 16 January - hoping it would drop down to $1,605 or below.

It never happened. Gold may be down a bit over the last couple of days but it's still around $1,731.

Here's what's happened over the last week:

Meanwhile I still have about 75% of my portfolio in cash, the rest is in in Black Rock Gold and General fund. So despite the name of this blog I don't actually own any gold ETFs (PHAU) after selling them all in December.

Does this cash heavy situation mean I should fear something devaluing my pounds sterling before I get to buy any gold?

Greece could default with or without a bailout (Wall Street Journal: Greece could take the bailout money and run) and even if Greece goes smoothly attention will still turn to other eurozone problems.

 Generally, if something happens to the euro the pound gets hit too - at least it does in relation to the dollar. So while a falling euro would probably mean falling gold, it would also mean that the purchasing power of my pounds will be less, undermining the opportunity to buy US$ denominated gold. I need to work out if that's something I really need to worry about and if I can do anything about it.

(Although S&P is now threatening a further downgrade to the US as well - it also downgraded CME Group which runs commodities futures markets including gold but I've got no idea what the consequences of that might be).

Meanwhile some commentators say that stock markets have been over bought (Market watch: If something in europe or anywhere else upsets investors gold could go down too as it is still behaving like a risk asset.

For that reason I'm still not buying but I'm going to start watching a bit more closely now. Although judging by my past record that's good reason to expect gold prices to carry onwards and upwards!

Will Rhind, MD of ETF Securities in the US talks to Alix Steel on The Street. ETF Securities is still for sale but, like me, buyers may be waiting for a fall in the gold price before making an offer. Other commentators mentioned in her piece offered conflicting forecasts.

Bespoke said the U.S. dollar index was "in danger of breaking its six month uptrend" and a falling dollar could add support higher gold prices.

Meanwhile David Banister, chief investment strategist at told The Street that gold is entering the last and final stage of its bull market. "I believe that it is a 13 year cycle and we are in the fifth and final wave pattern up," he says, which could last for 12-18 months."