Friday, 2 August 2013

Cash in waiting

I put more money in my account this morning. But I am now down about £2,000.

I now want to make a judgement about buying more gold. I think I'm clear about why I own it but it's not a conviction and I have to remind myself why I'm doing it otherwise I get confused.

My position is that I see it as a safety net which may or may not work.

I seem to forget this every time the price moves. Instead I think I should either increase how much gold I own or worry about how much money I have lost as a result of this investment (if that is what it is).

I also start thinking about quicker returns to reassure myself. I ponder over how I can increase my exposure ahead of price rises... or if buying more now would be a mistake if prices fall afterwards.

Anyway, if I want to own some gold for safety, it is now cheaper than it has been since I started buying it.

If this cheapness persists hopefully it will be because the global economy, particularly the US, is doing better. 

This would be good for my life but it would mean that the value of the gold I own could carry on downwards for a while.

This morning the gold price fell by nearly 2%.  Here is a Bloomberg report from this morning 

Later in the day gold gained after non-farm payrolls were worse than expected: Bloomberg again: 

Before this I transferred some cash into my account in preparation for more buying - may be more BlackRock Gold and General or more PHAU or neither. I've made most of my losses on the miners but lots of people are saying this is where the gains will come (here's an interesting and reassuringly technical sounding discussion with Ron Struthers:

However, the fact that I own these things probably contradicts my original safety net argument.

Still, hopefully this experience is helping me arrive at a more coherent view on what it is that I am trying to do.

This was the price I could have got for the usual 10 shares - and now I'm wondering if I should keep the cash I pay constant, rather than the amount of gold I buy constant. I'm not sure what the difference will be.

Anyway, I didn't buy anything....

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